P26 - Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Political Economy; Property RightsReturn

In the first two decades of the 21st century, the previous democratization progress was partly reversed. It is well seen in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe but also in other geographic regions. In search for causes of this warning trend, many authors point out economic factors such as economic stagnation, unemployment, inequality, consequences of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and side-effects of globalization. Not negating the role of economic factors, it is important, however, to see noneconomic determinants such as immature political institutions and their dysfunctionality, nationalism and cultural prejudices, and side-effects of the ICT revolution, which destroyed traditional media and public debate. The antidemocratic drift is dangerous not only for political and civil freedom but also has a negative impact on economic governance, making economies less open and competitive and easy victims of oligarchic predation (‘crony’ capitalism).

The paper provides an introduction to the special issue. It shows a sense in which Visegrád and Balkan EU countries are correlated in macroeconomic performance and integrated with the global business cycles. Using inflation rate levels as a starting point to characterize when these countries began their transitions, it shows that after 1996 both real GDP growth and real interest rates move together to a significant degree both with each other and with the US. This provides a background from which to view the paths since the collapse of the Soviet Union that these transition economies have taken. In addition, comparison is made to US money and banking policy, to provide an outline of how this may impact progress in the transition region. A subsequent summary of the other articles in the issue shows an inter-relation in their themes about how Central, Eastern, and Southeast Europe have progressed since 1991, and how these paths may be affected by Western economic policy.
Implications for Central European audience: The paper shows that transition regions can be impacted by international financial integration, including to possible detriment when capital markets are regulated by policy that pushes real interest rates below their natural levels. Negative real interest rate policy since the 2008-2009 financial crisis and again during the Covid crisis may hasten the rise of autocratic democracy and limit social, political, and economic freedom.