L62 - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and EquipmentReturn

This paper explores the relationship between the performance of the Czech automotive industry and the performance of the Czech macroeconomy with an objective to fill in some existing gaps in the research on this topic. An overreliance on one sector could have harmful consequences for the competitiveness of the entire economy but sometimes also for the sector itself, particularly in the long run. We test several hypotheses in this context using two frameworks: a vector autoregression model with exogenous drivers and a vector error correction model, both built on quarterly time series data in the period ranging from 2000 to 2017 and validated out-of-sample on the 2018 and 2019 data. The results suggest that the macroeconomy appears to some extent forecastable by the performance of its automotive sector. This is further supported by the fact that the forecasting performance of the selected models looks reasonable. Likewise, the results show that the key variables proxying the performance of the automotive industry tend to converge to a long-run equilibrium or at least exhibit a long-run relationship with and/or vis-à-vis the selected macroeconomic indicators. This finding is in line with the fact that the automotive sector has an important position in the Czech economy also from a longer-term perspective. Yet, we have not found that the macroeconomy would be overreliant on automotives in general terms.
Implications for Central European audience: The text brings potential value for the Central European audience by drawing attention to the palpating discussion among policymakers, scientists, and the media about the reliance of the macroeconomy on the automotive sector. Hence, it suggests how independent individual economic policies may ultimately be, also depending on the share of the automotive industry on total output. It is also useful for the top management of the firms in the large automotive firms, be it producers or suppliers, as they may observe how the interconnections with the outer economy might look like. Likewise, for the banking sector, the paper disentangles potential issues with concentration risk and conveys information about industry-specific lending. Finally, the paper provides the Central European readers with information about how the linkages in the automotive industry can be viewed as a whole.

The article examines recent developments in the Russian retail trade and automobile industry as two very dynamic sectors of the Russian economy by stating and forecasting sales trends, presenting the main market participants, shares of business forms and deducing perspectives for Central and Eastern European investors. The article uses a standard methodology for description of industries and econometric models for sales forecasts and analysis. The article's main benefit for Central and Eastern European managers is its concise and up-to-date description of the both sectors of the Russian economy, which is not easily accessible for foreigners due to language barriers and marketing agency fees.

The automotive industry is a key sector of the Czech national economy. Its share of GDP represents more than 8% and the Czech Republic is the 14^th biggest producer of personal cars in the world. The goal of this article is to analyze the development of the customer portfolio of automotive suppliers in the Czech Republic from the perspective of their international location. The diversification of the portfolio can be measured in many ways. The approach in this article relies both on the usual statistical tools (concentration ratio, Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient, Herfindahl-Hirschman index) and on specific approaches such as the number of partners, geographical diversification and average distance travelled by exported component. Even though the export volume has been dynamically growing, it has remained focused on a limited number of crucial countries, which are mostly located in the close neighborhood of the Czech Republic.